The African Development Bank (AfDB) has issued a stark warning that Africa could face economic losses of up to $20 billion (around Sh2.58 trillion) if a predicted 'super' El Niño weather phenomenon materializes as expected. This event, linked to severe droughts, floods, and storms, threatens to undermine growth, food and water security, and trigger widespread displacement.

Economic and Humanitarian Impact

Anthony Nyong, AfDB's director for climate change and green growth, highlighted that the gross domestic product (GDP) of the most severely affected countries could shrink by 1 to 2 percent. This translates into losses ranging from $10 billion to $20 billion across the continent.

The El Niño pattern, intensified by rising Pacific Ocean temperatures, is anticipated to exacerbate existing climate vulnerabilities. Countries in the Sahel region could see prolonged droughts, while areas recovering from past disasters, such as Mozambique after Cyclone Idai, remain at risk of slow recovery.

Pressure on Governments and Infrastructure

Beyond immediate food and water shortages, governments may encounter financial strain due to damaged infrastructure, complicating debt repayments and budget allocations. Nyong described this as a “climate finance trap,” where resources are diverted from essential sectors like health and education to address disaster fallout.

Already, African farmers have suffered nearly $330 million in lost income this year, with fisheries also vulnerable due to rising sea temperatures and storms.

Preparing for the Crisis

The AfDB plans to intensify its response through a seminar in September to evaluate the impact on investments and explore project restructuring. The bank will collaborate with governments to secure additional funding from multilateral sources including the Green Climate Fund, Adaptation Fund, and new loss-and-damage mechanisms.

A United Nations report estimates developing countries require $365 billion annually by 2035 for climate adaptation, yet only $26 billion was available in 2023. Nyong estimates Africa alone may need up to $100 billion this year due to the expected severity of El Niño.

Expected Regional Effects

  • Countries such as Sudan, South Sudan, Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia, Mali, Burundi, and Nigeria face heightened humanitarian challenges.
  • Mass migration is anticipated as food prices, especially maize, could double.
  • Competition over scarce grazing land and water resources may worsen conflicts in vulnerable regions.
  • Agricultural losses are projected at $327 million, with fisheries productivity dropping between 1% and 4%.

The AfDB emphasizes the urgent need for African nations to build resilience against climate shocks ahead of the global climate talks in Turkey this November.