Political analyst Herman Manyora has suggested that Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna could achieve a higher vote share in Vihiga County compared to Bungoma, where he was born and raised.

Speaking on a local radio station on July 27, 2026, Manyora highlighted Vihiga as the county offering the least political resistance to Sifuna within Western Kenya. He noted that despite Sifuna’s homecoming tour drawing large crowds in Bungoma and Trans Nzoia counties, the political landscape in Bungoma presents significant challenges.

Bungoma's Complex Political Terrain

  • Mount Elgon area hosts the Sabaot community, some of whom are Kalenjin and supporters of President William Ruto.
  • Influential leaders like National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula and Kimilili MP Didmus Barasa hold substantial sway, limiting Sifuna’s dominance.

Manyora pointed out that while these leaders might not completely block Sifuna's momentum, they are likely to capture a notable portion of the vote, diluting his overall share in Bungoma.

Vihiga: A More Favorable Ground

In contrast, Vihiga currently lacks strong organised opposition to Sifuna, making it a favorable arena for him to secure a larger percentage of votes. Manyora, who hails from Vihiga, emphasized the senator’s growing appeal in the county.

Other Western Counties

  • In Kakamega, former Governor Wycliffe Oparanya and ODM leaders allied with President Ruto could limit Sifuna’s vote share.
  • Trans Nzoia’s significant Kalenjin population may similarly reduce his support.
  • Busia’s internal ODM divisions and unique politics are expected to prevent Sifuna from gaining an overwhelming majority.

Manyora concluded that among Western counties, Vihiga stands out as the most promising for Sifuna’s electoral success. He also noted that the senator’s expanding influence across the region poses a formidable challenge to any political rivals.

This analysis comes amid warnings from ODM’s Caleb Amisi against Sifuna being perceived solely as a Luhya leader, cautioning that such a label could undermine his national political stature.