Saboti Member of Parliament Caleb Amisi has issued a stern warning to President William Ruto, emphasizing that the Mt Kenya region remains a pivotal electoral base that cannot be substituted by votes from Western Kenya or Nyanza.

Speaking to the media on July 25, 2026, Amisi recalled past political dynamics, noting that attempts to replace Mt Kenya’s influence, such as the 42 counties versus one scenario involving Raila Odinga, were unsuccessful. He stressed that Mt Kenya voters were instrumental in Ruto’s 2022 presidential victory and are now demanding their political influence be acknowledged and restored.

Efforts to Shift Voting Blocs

The comments come amid an active campaign by government-allied leaders to cultivate a new voter base for Ruto in Western Kenya and Nyanza ahead of the 2027 General Election. Kakamega Deputy Governor Ayub Savula has pledged to deliver 2.6 million votes from Western Kenya, with coordination led by Bungoma Governor Ken Lusaka and other regional leaders.

Lusaka has set an ambitious target of four million votes from Western Kenya alone, arguing that previous elections saw suppressed voter numbers. However, with the region expected to have about 3.2 million registered voters in 2027, achieving this would require a significant voter registration drive and exceptional turnout.

The Importance of Mt Kenya Votes

Data from the 2022 election highlights the magnitude of Mt Kenya’s contribution to Ruto’s win. Nationally, Ruto garnered over 7.17 million votes compared to Raila Odinga’s nearly 6.94 million, a margin of around 233,000 votes.

  • The ten Mt Kenya counties contributed approximately 2.94 million votes to Ruto.
  • Raila received about 847,000 votes from the same region.

This substantial margin underscores Mt Kenya’s critical role in the outcome. Amisi argues that replacing nearly three million loyal votes with endorsements from Western and Nyanza leaders alone is insufficient. Ruto must maintain a strong foothold in Mt Kenya while simultaneously expanding support in other regions.

Kenya’s Constitution mandates that a presidential candidate secure over 50 percent of valid votes and at least 25 percent of votes in 24 counties to win. While broadening appeal in Western and Nyanza is strategic, abandoning Mt Kenya could jeopardize Ruto’s path to re-election in 2027.