President Felix Tshisekedi of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DR Congo) is navigating a complex and uncertain path toward a possible third term in office. Although the current constitution limits presidents to two terms and prohibits amendments in this area, recent developments have opened the door to constitutional revision.
Constitutional Changes Under Consideration
In a significant ruling, DR Congo's constitutional court approved a bill that allows amendments to previously "prohibited subjects" in the constitution, including presidential term limits, if there is a declared "major dysfunction" of state institutions. This move could enable Tshisekedi, who has been president since 2019 and is expected to leave office after his second term ends in 2028, to seek an additional term.
The proposed process involves the president convening a panel of experts whose recommendations would then be reviewed by a constituent assembly. If approved by a three-fifths majority, the changes would be subjected to a public referendum. Critics argue that the judiciary and legislature lack independence, raising doubts about the fairness of this process.
Political and Security Challenges
The eastern regions of North and South Kivu remain volatile due to ongoing conflict involving the M23 rebel group, which is supported by Rwanda. This instability casts uncertainty over voter turnout in these provinces for the planned 2028 elections and any constitutional referendum.
Despite widespread dissatisfaction, with 60% of citizens believing the country is headed in the wrong direction, President Tshisekedi maintains strong public approval, with over 80% expressing favorable views according to recent surveys. The conflict has also stirred nationalist sentiments that bolster Tshisekedi’s political standing.
Opposition and Public Response
The opposition, weakened after the 2023 elections, has formed a coalition known as "C64" to resist constitutional changes. However, their capacity to mobilize remains limited amid fragmentation and political fatigue within civil society.
Recent protests against the proposed referendum law turned violent, leading to injuries and at least one death, drawing condemnation from the United Nations. The opposition has yet to formally respond to the constitutional court’s decision.
National Dialogue Efforts
The government’s announcement of a national dialogue has led the opposition to postpone planned protests. While some opposition factions have been excluded due to alleged links with rebel groups, there are calls for the dialogue to commence promptly to avoid further unrest.
As DR Congo approaches the 2028 elections, the political landscape remains fraught with challenges, with President Tshisekedi’s ambitions and the country’s stability hanging in the balance.
