Informal Exports to Ethiopia and Uganda Constitute Over 80% of Kenya’s Cross-Border Trade

Kenya’s informal trade with neighbouring countries remains heavily concentrated in exports to Ethiopia and Uganda, which together accounted for more than 80% of the country’s informal export value in the year ending June 2025, according to a new report by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS).

The report, based on surveys conducted over two 14-day periods in December 2024 and June 2025, reveals that informal exports to Ethiopia were valued at Sh74.5 million and Sh67 million respectively, while Uganda received Sh37.1 million and Sh36.2 million worth of goods during the same periods.

Key Export Commodities and Trade Routes

• Food and live animals emerged as the leading category by June 2025, representing 37.9% of informal exports, up from 28.3% in December 2024.
• Inedible crude materials excluding fuels also featured prominently, accounting for 42.1% of informal exports in December 2024 but declining to 24% by June 2025.
• Main informal export corridors included Moyale, Suam, Mandera, Busia, and Namanga, with Moyale serving as the principal gateway for exports to Ethiopia and Suam for Uganda.

Trade Dynamics and Regional Impact

The KNBS report highlights that Kenya’s informal trade balance shifted from a surplus of Sh20.4 million in December 2024 to a deficit of Sh1.1 million by June 2025, due to a 22.3% drop in informal exports and a 10.2% decrease in imports. Informal trade deficits were recorded with Tanzania (Sh40.9 million) and Somalia (Sh5 million), reflecting complex regional trade interdependencies.

Motorbikes dominated as the preferred transport mode for informal traders, accounting for over 40% of transport used.

Recommendations for Improvement

To strengthen informal trade data and border efficiency, the KNBS report recommends enhanced data sharing between the Kenya Revenue Authority and KNBS, improved border infrastructure, and wider adoption of simplified trade arrangements.