The Kenya Meteorological Department has issued a weather forecast covering the period from July 28 to August 3, indicating varied weather patterns across the country.

Rainfall and Thunderstorms Expected

Morning showers are anticipated in counties including Siaya, Busia, Bungoma, Kakamega, Uasin Gishu, and Turkana. Intermittent light rains and cloudiness will affect Embu, Kiambu, Kirinyaga, Laikipia, Meru, Murang'a, Nairobi, Nyandarua, Nyeri, and Tharaka-Nithi.

Afternoon thunderstorms and showers are forecast in a broad range of counties such as Baringo, Bomet, Bungoma, Busia, Elgeyo-Marakwet, Embu, Homa Bay, Kakamega, Kericho, Kiambu, Kirinyaga, Kisii, Kisumu, Laikipia, Meru, Migori, Murang'a, Nairobi, Nakuru, Nandi, Narok, Nyamira, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Siaya, Tharaka-Nithi, Trans Nzoia, Turkana, Uasin Gishu, Vihiga, and West Pokot.

Night Showers and Sunny Intervals

Nighttime precipitation is expected in Kisumu, Kakamega, Kisii, Nyamira, Vihiga, West Pokot, Turkana, Trans Nzoia, Busia, Siaya, Homa Bay, and Migori.

Counties such as Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Lamu, Machakos, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Mombasa, Samburu, Taita-Taveta, Tana River, and Wajir will experience sunny intervals during afternoons, with several others reporting generally sunny mornings.

Temperature Variations and Precautions

  • Daytime highs exceeding 30°C are expected in Kilifi, Tana River, Lamu, Garissa, Wajir, Isiolo, Marsabit, Samburu, and Turkana.
  • Cold nights with temperatures dropping below 10°C are forecast in parts of the central highlands and Rift Valley, including Meru, Tharaka-Nithi, Kirinyaga, Murang'a, Nyeri, Nyandarua, Laikipia, Nakuru, Kajiado, and Taita Taveta.

The department has urged residents in areas prone to thunderstorms to stay vigilant and follow weather updates closely.

El Niño Preparedness

Authorities in counties like Homa Bay, Kisumu, and Nakuru have been advised to activate contingency plans ahead of the anticipated El Niño rains. Rising water levels in lakes such as Victoria, Turkana, Baringo, Bogoria, Elementaita, Naivasha, and Nakuru raise concerns of possible flooding and displacement due to backflow.

Misiani Zachary, a Disaster Risk Management expert at the Kenya Meteorological Department, highlighted the risk of early and heavy rainfall driven by a strong El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole. This combination could trigger flash floods in various regions during the upcoming short rains season.