Kenya is among a select group of seven countries worldwide making significant strides toward controlling the HIV epidemic, according to a recent report by UNAIDS. Since 2010, the country has achieved nearly an 80% reduction in new HIV infections and met the global 95-95-95 treatment targets, placing it on track to end AIDS as a public health threat by 2030.

The 95-95-95 targets mean at least 95% of people living with HIV know their status, 95% of those diagnosed are on antiretroviral therapy, and 95% of those on treatment have suppressed viral loads, reducing transmission risks.

Progress and Challenges

Kenya recorded approximately 70,000 new HIV infections in 2010, which dropped to 13,936 in 2025, marking a dramatic 80% decline over 15 years. This achievement ranks Kenya alongside countries such as Benin, Eswatini, Lesotho, Nepal, Rwanda, and Zimbabwe.

However, the report highlights concerns about the sustainability of these gains due to steep cuts in international funding, particularly following reductions initiated by the United States under the previous administration. Global HIV financing fell by 18% from $8.8 billion in 2024 to $7.3 billion in 2025, the lowest in nearly two decades.

UNAIDS warns that the decline in donor support threatens prevention, testing, and treatment programmes, especially those relying heavily on external aid. Community-based services and prevention outreach have been particularly affected, with some programmes scaling down or halting operations.

Government Response and Future Outlook

Kenya’s National Syndemic Diseases Control Council (NSDCC) acknowledges ongoing prevention gaps, particularly among adolescent girls and young women, who remain disproportionately affected. Despite a rise in new infections in 2023 and 2024, preliminary data for 2025 shows renewed progress with the lowest number of new infections recorded since the epidemic began.

NSDCC Chief Executive Douglas Bosire emphasized that while challenges persist, the country’s scaled-up prevention frameworks and sustained treatment efforts are yielding positive results. Viral load suppression rates remain high in most counties, and mother-to-child transmission prevention has been maintained despite funding disruptions.

Regional Impact and Vulnerable Populations

  • Nairobi leads with the highest number of new infections, followed by Kisumu, Homa Bay, and Migori counties.
  • Children, adolescents, and young adults account for over half of new infections.
  • Adolescent girls and young women continue to be the most vulnerable demographic.

Funding and Partnerships

Approximately 80% of HIV prevention funding in sub-Saharan Africa has traditionally come from international donors, creating vulnerability amid shrinking aid. To address this, Kenya recently signed a five-year health partnership with the United States, expected to mobilize around $1.6 billion (Sh207 billion) to bolster health systems and disease programmes, including HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria.

UNAIDS Executive Director Winnie Byanyima stressed the need for countries to increase domestic investment in health as international aid declines, warning that without urgent action, millions more could be infected by 2030.