Retired President Uhuru Kenyatta’s efforts to influence Kenya’s political landscape are encountering fresh obstacles as the 2027 general elections approach.

After backing Raila Odinga in 2022, Uhuru has since thrown his support behind former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i as Jubilee Party’s preferred presidential candidate. However, political analysts warn that prematurely rallying behind Matiang’i may not guarantee success.

Concerns Over Jubilee’s Candidate Selection

Political commentator Caleb Burudi advises Jubilee to engage in wider consultations within the opposition coalition before settling on a single candidate. He notes that a successful presidential bid requires extensive grassroots support and coalition-building beyond a candidate’s regional base.

"Focusing too early on one individual risks alienating other influential leaders and weakening the opposition’s unity against President William Ruto," Burudi said.

Shifting Alliances in Kisii and Nyanza

Uhuru’s strategy is further complicated by evolving political dynamics in regions considered Matiang’i’s strongholds. Several leaders from Kisii and Nyanza have publicly aligned with Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, who is gaining traction as a potential presidential contender.

  • Kisii Senator Richard Onyonka has endorsed Sifuna’s possible presidential ambitions.
  • Kitutu Masaba MP Clive Gisairo has appeared alongside Sifuna during regional tours.
  • Former Jubilee official Pauline Njoroge resigned from the party to join Sifuna’s camp.

Jubilee’s Waning Influence

Jubilee’s recent poor showing in the Ol Kalou parliamentary by-election, where its candidate secured only 198 votes, has raised concerns about the party’s declining influence, particularly in Mt Kenya, a former stronghold.

Eldas MP Adan Keynan described the loss as a clear indication of shifting political leadership in the region, citing Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s rising prominence.

Looking Ahead

As the opposition prepares for the 2027 race, Jubilee faces the dual challenge of rebuilding its structures and navigating internal divisions. Uhuru’s political blueprint, once seen as a pathway to national leadership, now contends with emerging rival factions and a changing electoral landscape.