The World Bank has issued a warning about the potential return of El Niño by mid-2026, which could severely impact global food production and food security through 2027.

There is a 61 to 87 percent chance that El Niño will develop and persist into 2027, threatening agricultural output amid already strained food systems due to rising costs, supply disruptions, and geopolitical tensions.

Projected Impact on Crop Production

  • Rice yields could decline between 20% and 50%, with South Asia, Southern Africa, and parts of East Asia most affected.
  • East Africa, while not expected to face the largest crop losses, remains vulnerable due to ongoing humanitarian crises and fragile food systems.

Food Insecurity Concerns in East Africa

Regions such as Somalia, South Sudan, and Sudan face severe food insecurity driven by conflict, displacement, and climate shocks. Currently, between 44 million and 47 million people in Eastern and Southern Africa require food aid, with the highest needs in countries grappling with overlapping economic, security, and climate challenges.

El Niño’s anticipated high temperatures and below-average rainfall could suppress crop yields and reduce household incomes, further limiting food access in East Africa during 2027.

Rising Costs Compound Risks

Farmers worldwide are dealing with increased production costs; fertiliser prices have surged by 35% in early 2026 compared to last year. Additionally, global cereal production is expected to fall from the record levels seen in 2025 due to adverse weather and reduced planting incentives.

The World Bank emphasizes that these converging factors—climate risks, geopolitical shocks, and rising input costs—are making food and nutrition security more fragile, especially in low-income and fragile economies.

Call for Action

To mitigate El Niño’s potential impacts, the World Bank urges governments to strengthen agricultural resilience, invest in climate-smart farming practices, and protect vulnerable populations. These measures are critical to safeguarding food production, stabilizing prices, and supporting livelihoods through 2027.