Leaders from African Union (AU) member states backing the military mission in Somalia have expressed determination to prolong the mandate of the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), despite the United States' decision to cease critical political and financial backing.

US Withdrawal Threatens AU Mission

The United States, which has been the primary funder of the United Nations Support Office in Somalia (UNSOS), announced it will end support by the close of 2026. UNSOS provides vital logistical assistance to AUSSOM's approximately 12,000 troops deployed to combat the Islamist insurgent group Al-Shabaab.

Washington cited insufficient progress by Somalia's government in tackling security and governance challenges as reasons for its withdrawal and has committed to opposing any further UN logistical aid to the AU mission.

AU Leaders Call for Coordinated Exit Plan

In Kampala, African leaders emphasized the need for a managed, phased withdrawal of AUSSOM over a period of up to two years, under a UN Security Council mandate. This timeline would allow Somali security forces to gradually assume responsibility for national security.

However, experts caution that a sudden or poorly planned exit could mirror Afghanistan's 2021 scenario, potentially leading to the collapse of Somalia's government and resurgence of insurgent control.

Political Instability Complicates Security Efforts

Somalia remains politically fragmented, with President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud extending his term through constitutional amendments opposed by opposition groups and regional administrations. This has fueled violent clashes and deepened national divisions.

AU leaders have urged the Somali president to convene inclusive talks among government, opposition, and federal state representatives to address the crisis, though Mohamud has resisted internationalizing Somalia's internal political issues.

Financial Challenges and Donor Fatigue

The AU mission faces significant funding gaps, as UNSOS operational expenses far exceed AUSSOM’s budget. The European Union, historically a major donor, has scaled back its contributions this year. The AU acknowledges it cannot cover all costs alone.

A senior AU diplomat described the US decision as irreversible and indicated that without logistical support, the AU may have no alternative but to end its mission prematurely to avoid being unable to evacuate troops.

Security Experts Warn of Consequences

  • Meressa Kahsu Dessu of the Institute for Security Studies warns that an uncoordinated exit could leave Somalia vulnerable to insurgent takeover similar to Afghanistan's experience.
  • Former Somali security advisor Abdisaid Muse Ali cautions that reliance on foreign military presence and aid has undermined institution-building, and Somalia risks repeating past mistakes if leaders do not prepare for the AU's drawdown.

The AU mission remains a cornerstone of Somalia's fight against Al-Shabaab, which continues to control large parts of the country despite two decades of conflict. The unfolding developments raise critical questions about Somalia’s security and political future.