The World Food Programme (WFP) has issued a stark warning that the rapidly intensifying El Niño weather phenomenon could thrust an additional 50 million people into acute hunger before the close of 2027.
This surge in food insecurity compounds the existing crisis where over 225 million individuals across 45 countries already face severe hunger due to prolonged droughts in parts of Africa and rising food prices influenced by ongoing conflicts such as the war in the Middle East.
Regions Most at Risk
According to WFP analysis, Central and South America, the Caribbean, and southern Africa are expected to experience the harshest impacts. South and Southeast Asia may suffer from below-average rainfall, posing significant challenges to agriculture and livelihoods.
El Niño’s Growing Threat Amid Climate Change
El Niño, a periodic Pacific Ocean weather system that disrupts global rainfall patterns, is forecasted to be the strongest in seven decades, sometimes referred to as a “super El Niño.” Its intensity and effects are being amplified by the ongoing climate crisis.
Experts predict that this event, combined with global warming, could lead to record-breaking temperatures either in 2024 or more likely in 2027.
Mitigation Efforts and Challenges
The WFP aims to mitigate the crisis through early warning systems and anticipatory relief programs, allocating at least $80 million towards these efforts. Despite this, the repercussions are expected to be long-lasting, as farmers may deplete food reserves over multiple seasons.
In southern Africa, for example, the main crop growing season runs from October 2024 to March 2027, but the most severe food shortages are predicted during the lean season of 2027-2028, following the harvest.
Richard Choularton, WFP’s Director of Climate and Resilience, emphasized the delayed but severe impact during this period. Meanwhile, favorable food prices at the end of 2025 could be undermined by geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains.
Lessons from Past El Niño Events
During the 2015-16 El Niño event, between 60 million and 100 million people experienced acute food insecurity. Since then, the WFP has enhanced its anticipatory response strategies, which may help reduce the impact despite this year’s El Niño potentially being more intense.
However, data collection challenges persist due to funding shortages, limiting the ability to fully assess and respond to the crisis.
Global Food Price Implications
Jean-Martin Bauer, WFP’s Director of Food Security, noted that food prices worldwide could face additional pressure depending on export policies of major food-producing countries. He cautioned against export bans that could exacerbate regional shortages and price spikes.
Farmers in Europe and the UK have already reported concerns over extreme heat and drought affecting harvests, signaling potential increases in food costs globally.
