El Niño, a recurring climate phenomenon characterized by the warming of the Pacific Ocean, is forecasted to strengthen through early 2027. This development poses severe risks to millions of people across eastern and southern Africa.

Impact Across Regions

In eastern Africa, stretching from Somalia to Tanzania, El Niño typically brings excessive rainfall. This often leads to flash floods, landslides, and damage to infrastructure such as roads, schools, and clinics. Floodwaters contaminate drinking supplies, increasing outbreaks of cholera and malaria.

Conversely, southern African countries including Zambia, Malawi, Namibia, Mozambique, and South Africa usually experience below-average rainfall during El Niño events. The resulting droughts cause crop failures, water shortages, and loss of grazing land, severely affecting food security.

Human Stories Highlight the Crisis

  • Esnart Chongani, a Zambian farmer, reported a total maize crop failure in 2024, with widespread hunger and dwindling community support due to shared hardship.
  • Martha Kalumbi from Malawi described her baby's severe malnutrition following a failed harvest, underscoring the acute food insecurity faced by families.
  • Asha Mohamed, a mother of nine in Somalia, was displaced by 2023 floods, struggling to access healthcare for her sick children amid financial constraints.

UN and Partners Prepare Ahead

Unlike many natural disasters, El Niño can be predicted months in advance, enabling proactive humanitarian responses. Between 2023 and 2025, anticipatory funding helped over 8.5 million people in eastern and southern Africa with early cash assistance and support before crises fully unfolded.

Efforts include distributing drought-resistant seeds in Madagascar, enhancing weather monitoring in Zambia, and launching joint appeals by the Food and Agriculture Organization and World Food Programme to assist 8.8 million people in 22 vulnerable countries.

UN Emergency Relief Coordinator Tom Fletcher emphasized the importance of investing in resilience rather than waiting for disaster to strike.