The escalating conflict between the US and Iran has significantly impacted humanitarian operations in Kenya, with a recent assessment revealing that 60 percent of aid organisations have scaled down or temporarily halted their activities.

A rapid survey conducted by the NGO Refugee Group (NRG) gathered data from 10 member organisations working across key refugee-hosting and border regions including Dadaab, Kakuma, Kalobeyei, Nairobi, Mandera, Lodwar, and Turkana.

Rising Costs Curtail Aid Efforts

While initial fears of severe supply chain disruptions have not materialised, aid agencies face sustained increases in fuel and logistics expenses, undermining their capacity to deliver assistance. All surveyed organisations reported higher fuel prices and transport costs, with 90 percent noting measurable increases since April. Fuel price hikes ranged from 15 to over 30 percent, with one group experiencing a 49 percent rise in generator fuel costs.

These cost pressures have led to a reduction in outreach programmes vital for community support, including protection monitoring, health and nutrition services, and counselling. In Turkana’s Kibish and Lokichoggio, health outreach has been halved, while Kalobeyei’s community health services have been cut from daily to twice weekly operations. Technical field monitoring has also decreased despite persistent humanitarian needs.

Fuel Shortages and Financial Strain

Fuel availability challenges add to operational difficulties, with 60 percent of respondents reporting rationing, shortages, or supplier delays, especially in Kakuma, Dadaab, Lodwar, and Mandera. Additionally, 70 percent of organisations face exchange rate volatility, and 60 percent report budget constraints. Organisations providing cash and voucher assistance have seen a decline in the real value of their transfers, complicating support for vulnerable populations.

Community Impact

The assessment highlights worrying social consequences, with half of the organisations observing negative coping strategies among affected communities, such as child labour and early marriage. Increased tensions between refugees and host communities were noted by 40 percent of respondents.

This situation underscores the broader ripple effects of geopolitical conflicts on humanitarian operations and vulnerable populations in Kenya.