The Kenya Meteorological Department has forecast a predominantly dry weather pattern across much of the country for August and September 2026, raising alarms over potential food and water shortages.

According to the latest outlook, several counties are expected to receive near-average to below-average rainfall during August, with temperatures remaining above normal nationwide. The dry spell is projected to continue through September before scattered rains return in October.

Rainfall and Temperature Outlook

  • Counties including Trans Nzoia, Bungoma, Busia, Kakamega, Siaya, and others in western Kenya are likely to experience below-average rainfall.
  • Some coastal and northeastern areas such as Kwale, Kilifi, Mombasa, Lamu, and parts of Garissa may see above-average rainfall, mainly in October.
  • Dry and sunny conditions are expected in arid and semi-arid regions like Laikipia, Marsabit, Wajir, Mandera, and Isiolo.
  • Cool, cloudy mornings with occasional drizzle and fog are forecast in central highland counties including Kiambu, Murang’a, Nyeri, and Nairobi.
  • Mean temperatures will generally be warmer than usual, though certain highland areas may experience cooler spells accompanied by fog.

Implications for Agriculture and Resources

The department warns that the prolonged dry conditions experienced earlier this year have already caused crop losses, and the upcoming dry months could exacerbate shortages of food, water, pasture, and browse, particularly in vulnerable counties.

Water availability is expected to decline in arid and semi-arid zones due to limited rainfall. Catchment areas around Mount Elgon and the Mau Escarpment are set to receive near to below-average precipitation, while Mount Kenya's catchments may remain mostly dry, potentially affecting hydroelectric power generation.

Additional Weather Hazards

  • Strong winds exceeding 25 knots are anticipated along the coast and northeastern counties, posing risks to marine transport and infrastructure.
  • Fog may reduce visibility on roads in highland areas, increasing accident risks and causing delays, including possible interruptions at Wilson and Jomo Kenyatta airports.
  • Cool conditions may lead to a rise in respiratory illnesses such as asthma and pneumonia, especially in central highland counties.
  • Lightning strikes remain a hazard in western counties around Mt Elgon and Kakamega.

The Meteorological Department's July review showed that most parts of Kenya experienced warmer-than-average temperatures, with limited rainfall concentrated in a few counties. The ongoing dry spell underscores the need for preparedness across sectors, particularly agriculture, water resource management, and health.