The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has forecast above-average rainfall starting October 2026, linked to a developing strong El Niño event expected to persist into early 2027.

KMD indicates an 81% chance that the 2026 El Niño will be very strong and a 97% likelihood it will continue into the first months of 2027. Narok County's Meteorological Director, Stanley Kinyua, explained that Kenya will shift from below-normal rains in the coming weeks to wetter-than-average conditions during the October-November-December short rains season.

Kinyua cautioned that rainfall amounts will also depend on the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a climate phenomenon affecting East Africa's weather by either amplifying or suppressing El Niño's impact. The IOD is currently expected to be positive, which could enhance rainfall.

Regional Rainfall Outlook and Flood Risks

  • Western Kenya is projected to receive below-average rainfall during August to October.
  • From October onwards, most parts of Kenya are likely to experience above-average rains through November.
  • Flood and landslide-prone areas in Narok County include Narok town, Mosiro, Ewaso Ngiro, Kilgoris, and Nkareta.

Kinyua emphasized that El Niño is a recurring climate pattern originating in the tropical Pacific Ocean and has historically caused devastating floods in Kenya, notably in 1997-1998, 2006-2007, 2015-2016, and 2023-2024.

Communities in informal settlements, floodplains, arid and semi-arid lands, riparian zones, and wetlands are most vulnerable. Infrastructure such as roads, water systems, markets, and health facilities are also at risk. Weak drainage, poor sanitation, and inadequate housing exacerbate flood disasters.

Preparedness Measures and Coordination

In response, Narok County has activated a multi-agency committee chaired jointly by local administrators and state departments to coordinate preparedness and response efforts. Deputy County Commissioner Joseph Merisho confirmed that agencies are mapping resources, enhancing public communication, and planning interventions to mitigate impacts.

Nationally, the government has established an Ad Hoc Cabinet Committee on El Niño preparedness to support devolved units and strengthen resilience.

International Warnings and Support

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Food Programme (WFP) have highlighted Kenya among 22 countries at high risk of climate shocks due to El Niño. Their joint report stresses the urgency of early action to protect food security and livelihoods, requesting $202 million to assist vulnerable populations.

The agencies warn of potential flooding, crop damage, livestock disease, displacement, and infrastructure destruction. They advocate for anticipatory measures such as early warnings, cash transfers, distribution of farm inputs, water storage improvements, livestock vaccinations, and flood defenses.

Kenya's proactive steps aim to reduce humanitarian crises and safeguard communities as the country braces for the anticipated El Niño rains.