The Kenya Meteorological Department has projected predominantly dry weather across much of the country during August and September, despite global forecasts indicating a strengthening El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) that could bring heavy rains to the Greater Horn of Africa.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) highlighted that the El Niño phenomenon is intensifying rapidly between August and October, with the IOD turning positive. This combination usually results in increased rainfall over East Africa due to warmer sea surface temperatures near the Kenyan coast, which enhance moisture and cloud formation.

Local Weather Outlook

Edward Muriuki, Acting Director of Meteorological Services, said that while the global climate outlook points to increased rainfall, Kenya’s immediate forecast remains largely dry:

  • Counties in Western and parts of the Rift Valley such as Trans Nzoia, Bungoma, Kakamega, Kisumu, and Kericho are expected to receive below-average rainfall from August through October.
  • Areas along the Coast, including Kwale, Kilifi, Mombasa, and Lamu, along with parts of northeastern counties like Garissa and Mandera, are likely to experience above-average rainfall, mostly in October.
  • Central Kenya counties including Murang'a, Nyeri, Embu, and Nairobi will see cool, cloudy conditions with occasional light rain in August and early September, before seasonal rains begin in October.
  • Isiolo and Kajiado counties are predicted to stay generally dry throughout the period.

Additional Weather Impacts

The department warned of strong south-easterly winds in northern, eastern, and coastal regions, which may cause damage to infrastructure and disrupt marine transport. Fog in the Central highlands could reduce road visibility and affect flights at Wilson and Jomo Kenyatta airports.

Despite cooler mornings in highland areas, mean temperatures across Kenya are expected to be warmer than average. These conditions may increase respiratory illnesses such as asthma and pneumonia, while dust and strong winds in arid regions could exacerbate eye infections and respiratory problems.

Water shortages may intensify in pastoral areas due to the prolonged dry spell. Residents and authorities are urged to prepare for these conditions and mitigate potential health and infrastructure impacts.