Kenya, a nation rich in ethnic, cultural, and regional diversity, has spent over six decades striving to unify its many communities. However, current presidential politics often centre on identity-based coalitions, which can deepen divisions rather than foster national cohesion.

Abdirahman Nassir proposes a shift from the presidential system to a parliamentary model. He argues this change would better reflect Kenya’s diversity and strengthen democratic governance by focusing on parliamentary representation rather than a single presidential race.

Challenges of the Presidential System

The existing system requires a presidential candidate to win over half the votes and secure at least 25% in more than half of the counties. While designed to encourage broad support, it often leads to political mobilisation along ethnic and regional lines, as communities seek alliances to form winning coalitions.

Studies reveal that voters without a co-ethnic presidential candidate are more likely to change their voting intentions, highlighting ethnicity’s persistent role in elections. Political parties tend to form either mono-ethnic groups or multi-ethnic alliances, influenced by the institutional incentives of the presidential system.

Benefits of a Parliamentary System

  • Each constituency would focus on electing capable representatives, regardless of ethnicity or region.
  • The Prime Minister, chosen from the parliamentary majority, would lead the government, making every parliamentary seat critical to national leadership.
  • Executive power could be shared among coalition parties, reducing the winner-takes-all nature of presidential politics.
  • Political competition would shift to party platforms, legislative performance, and coalition-building skills.
  • Stronger political parties would be incentivized to develop clear ideologies and policy positions on economics, social protection, healthcare, education, and governance.
  • Accountability would improve as governments could be replaced by parliamentary vote without waiting for fixed presidential terms.

Considerations and Next Steps

Nassir acknowledges that parliamentary systems have potential drawbacks, such as coalition instability and party fragmentation. He stresses the importance of a national dialogue on electoral design, minority protections, the balance of powers, and the role of devolution to ensure the system suits Kenya’s unique context.

Kenya’s 2008 National Accord briefly introduced a form of parliamentary governance, with a Prime Minister drawn from Parliament, demonstrating the feasibility of such a system.

Ultimately, Nassir calls for institutions that celebrate Kenya’s diversity by promoting idea-based politics, enduring parties, and leadership earned through performance and parliamentary confidence rather than ethnic arithmetic or personalities.

He concludes that embracing a parliamentary republic could transform Kenya’s democracy, moving the focus from “Who is our person?” to “Whose ideas can build the Kenya we want?”