The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is increasingly focused on safeguarding its traditional political strongholds amid growing competition from President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) ahead of the 2027 general elections.
ODM party leader and Siaya Senator Oburu Oginga has publicly appealed to President Ruto to keep the UDA out of regions historically dominated by ODM. Speaking on August 2, Oburu emphasized the importance of political zoning, arguing that areas where ODM already controls elected positions should remain uncontested by rival parties.
"We want zoning because Homa Bay is our zone. We don't want UDA in Homa Bay," Oburu stated, highlighting the party’s determination to retain its foothold in key counties.
He further explained that zoning should start with regions where ODM has sitting governors, MPs, and MCAs, which automatically qualify as the party’s strongholds without the need for negotiation.
This call comes as ODM grapples with internal challenges and a shifting political landscape following the death of its founder, former Prime Minister Raila Odinga. The party has experienced declining popularity in its traditional bases in Nyanza, Western Kenya, and the Coast, areas once considered electoral safe havens.
Earlier, Oburu urged ODM aspirants to focus on garnering support from grassroots members rather than seeking endorsements from party elites, underscoring the party’s commitment to a bottom-up nomination process.
"Power lies at the grassroots, and once you are nominated there, you will be our candidate," he said, promising neutrality from party leaders during nominations.
Despite these efforts, signs of ODM’s waning influence are evident. A recent rally in Kakamega County saw ODM leaders struggle to maintain attendance, and some party members have openly criticized ODM’s direction since Raila’s passing.
Suba South MP Caroli Omondi declared ODM "politically dead," accusing it of abandoning its founding values in pursuit of personal gains. Political analyst James Oloo attributed the decline partly to ODM’s current conciliatory approach, which contrasts with Raila’s historically assertive style.
A July 2026 TIFA survey revealed a significant drop in support for both ODM and UDA compared to post-2022 levels, with internal ODM factions competing for dominance.
Amidst these challenges, ODM insists on securing the deputy presidency in any coalition with UDA for the 2027 elections, pushing for a 50-50 power-sharing deal. Party leaders including Deputy Party Leader Simba Arati and Minority Leader Junet Mohamed have emphasized that ODM will not settle for less.
Siaya Governor James Orengo criticized ODM’s alliance with Ruto, blaming it for the party’s loss of identity and weakening its grassroots support.
For a party once known for expanding its influence, ODM’s current stance signals a strategic shift toward defending its remaining political territories rather than pursuing new gains.
