Somalia’s opposition coalition is advocating for the creation of an inclusive Transitional Council to oversee the country’s constitutional and electoral transition. This move aims to avoid a security and political collapse similar to Afghanistan’s experience after the 2021 withdrawal of US and allied forces.
The Somali Future Council (SFC), a key opposition group, on July 27 called for a comprehensive political agreement that would restore legitimacy, rebuild national consensus, and ensure the neutrality of state institutions, including the Somali National Army.
The SFC addressed their appeal to countries contributing troops to the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (Aussom) — Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Uganda, and Egypt — as well as the AU Commission and Peace and Security Council. They emphasized commitment to a Somali-owned, negotiated settlement based on dialogue rather than unilateral actions.
Opposition leaders criticize President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s recent constitutional amendments, which extended both parliamentary and presidential terms by a year without broad consultations. While the president advocates for direct elections by May next year, opponents argue Somalia’s fragile state requires indirect, clan-based polls.
Diplomatic Efforts and Challenges
Diplomatic mediations involving the US, UK, Türkiye, and international partners have so far failed to produce consensus. Attempts to reconcile four different electoral proposals from the government, SFC, Nabad & Nolol, and the National Union Council have stalled amid mutual distrust.
The Somali Non-State Actors (Sonsa), the largest civil society network, proposed a Transitional Constituency-Based Multiparty Electoral Model, emphasizing inclusive representation to prevent political exclusion during the transition.
Meanwhile, tensions have escalated as the US announced it will block future UN logistical support for Aussom, a move described by analysts as a severe blow to Somalia’s security. The AU Peace and Security Council has expressed concern over the potential operational and financial impact on peacekeeping forces.
Risk of a Security Vacuum
Political analysts warn that Somalia risks a security vacuum akin to Afghanistan’s collapse in 2021. Abdirahman Aynte of the Xaqsoor party highlighted the dangers of complacency, recalling how Afghan leaders failed to prepare for the withdrawal of international forces.
Former Somali Foreign Minister Abdisaid Muse Ali echoed these concerns, noting that Somali politicians must not rely indefinitely on external military and financial support.
Somalia’s history shows previous attempts at transitional governance, such as the 2012 Provisional Constitution following the Kampala Accord, but current political deadlock threatens progress.
Upcoming discussions hosted in Kampala aim to broaden talks on Somalia’s political future beyond military support, seeking durable solutions to the ongoing crisis.
