South Sudan is advancing preparations for its December 22 general elections following recent amendments to the 2018 Revitalised Peace Agreement (R-ARCSS). However, peace monitors and opposition leaders warn that key conditions for credible polls remain unmet, fueling fears of renewed instability.

Amendments and Political Fallout

President Salva Kiir signed changes last week that removed prior legal requirements tying elections to the completion of a permanent constitution and a national census. Critics argue these amendments risk deepening divisions by sidelining key stakeholders and undermining the peace deal’s framework.

Oyet Nathaniel Pierino, acting chairman of the SPLM/A-IO opposition group, condemned the move, stating it breaches the R-ARCSS and signals President Kiir’s disinterest in political reforms such as federalism, which many see as vital for resolving South Sudan’s conflict.

Challenges to Election Readiness

Experts highlight significant hurdles including weak institutions, ongoing insecurity, and insufficient civic education. The permanent constitution and integration of opposition forces into a unified national army, core elements of the 2018 peace deal, remain incomplete.

Professor Joseph Geng of the African Network of Constitutional Lawyers questioned the legitimacy of holding elections without a census or permanent constitution, while Peter Garang Geng from the University of Juba described the likelihood of timely elections as increasingly doubtful given the short timeframe and unresolved issues.

Security and Political Concerns

The Reconstituted Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (RJMEC), tasked with overseeing the peace process, expressed serious concerns in its mid-2024 report. Chairperson Aggrey George Owinow noted ongoing insecurity, political restrictions, and incomplete security arrangements.

The RJMEC criticized the unilateral manner in which amendments were passed, warning they could weaken regional guarantors such as IGAD and the African Union, and jeopardize the peace deal’s legal foundation.

Security remains fragile with clashes reported in Upper Nile, Jonglei, Unity, and Equatoria regions. Key security mechanisms, including ceasefire enforcement and disarmament processes, have stalled.

Calls for Inclusive Dialogue and Peaceful Conduct

The commission urged all parties to cease hostile rhetoric and military confrontations, recommit to the peace agreement, and engage in inclusive political dialogue to resolve outstanding issues. It also called for support from regional and international partners to ensure a peaceful electoral process.

Despite the challenges and mistrust among leaders, some experts advocate proceeding with the elections as a step toward political stability.