Recent military tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have severely disrupted global trade, particularly impacting exports of energy, fertilisers, and industrial goods. The strait, a vital maritime corridor south of Iran, handles about a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil and a significant portion of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and fertiliser shipments.
An analysis by the International Trade Centre (ITC), in partnership with the World Trade Organization and UNCTAD, reveals that exports from Hormuz-dependent countries—Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates—fell sharply in April 2026.
Key Findings
- Combined export volumes of 12 key products dropped 54% year-on-year.
- LNG exports plummeted by 95%, with urea fertiliser down 83%, methanol 80%, and ammonia 75%.
- Crude oil exports declined by 28 million tonnes, followed by refined petroleum oils (7.3 million tonnes) and LNG (5.5 million tonnes).
- Fertiliser, chemical, plastic, and aluminium shipments were also significantly affected, indicating broad industrial supply chain disruptions.
Global Impact and Market Responses
Importers reliant on Hormuz-dependent suppliers experienced varying impacts. For instance, Japan, historically sourcing 91% of its crude oil from the region, saw a 64% drop in imports. South Korea and Malaysia faced similar declines. Conversely, Thailand increased imports by 62% by securing alternative sources.
While alternative suppliers raised shipments for most products, only ammonia and polypropylene imports fully compensated for lost volumes. This suggests that many countries tapped into strategic reserves, inventories, or reduced consumption to manage shortfalls.
The ongoing instability has also led to heightened transport and insurance costs, further complicating trade flows beyond the immediate region. Despite some recent reductions in hostilities, shipping traffic remains significantly below normal levels.
