The security risks facing oil tankers in the Middle East have escalated to their highest point since the onset of the Iran war, analysts report, following a series of attacks on vessels navigating key regional waterways.
Experts highlight that the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial oil transit route, has seen shipping volumes plummet dramatically. According to ship-tracking firm Kpler, only 8 ships passed through the strait on Sunday and 11 on Saturday, a steep decline from the more than 100 vessels daily before hostilities began.
While a brief peace agreement in early June had temporarily increased traffic, renewed strikes between Iran and the US have since sharply reduced the number of vessels. Many ships have resorted to turning off their transponders, effectively "going dark" to avoid detection while transiting the strait.
Rising Risks in the Red Sea Alternative Route
To circumvent the Strait of Hormuz, some tankers have been rerouted through an alternative passage in the Red Sea. However, this route has become increasingly perilous due to attacks by Yemen's Houthi militia, who declared a blockade on Saudi Arabian Red Sea ports in late July.
The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency has documented multiple recent assaults on ships in this corridor, further complicating the security landscape. The Houthi threat primarily targets Saudi shipping, but the overall number of vessels passing through the Bab el-Mandeb strait has dropped to about half pre-conflict levels, with many also disabling their tracking systems.
Matthew Wright, an analyst at Kpler, described the situation as "a problem stacked on top of a problem," with both the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea routes under threat, constraining crude oil flows and disrupting market balance.
Industry Response and Outlook
Tim Wilkins, managing director of Intertanko, noted that the tanker industry is confronting a "broadening, deteriorating, and increasingly complex security situation," with high-risk zones expanding into Saudi Arabian waters and adjacent Red Sea areas.
Some shipping companies, such as global giant Hapag-Lloyd, continue to operate vessels through the Red Sea but remain vigilant and ready to adjust routes as conditions evolve.
Restoring normal cargo movements would likely take months even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, given suspended services and vessel redeployments.
Iran has denied any imminent agreement to lift restrictions in the strait, emphasizing that current limitations will remain amid ongoing US military pressure.
Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, summarized the outlook as bleak, stating that the conflict has reset the shipping industry to a precarious starting point, with limited alternatives for transporting hydrocarbons or containerized cargo and no clear resolution in sight.
