The World Food Programme (WFP) has issued a stark warning that a very strong El Niño event could dramatically worsen global hunger, potentially pushing nearly 49 million additional people into acute food insecurity by the end of 2027.

According to a report released by WFP on August 5, 2026, there is an 81% probability that this year's El Niño will be the strongest since 1950. Sea surface temperatures are currently at their highest levels since at least 1982, intensifying concerns about the impact on vulnerable regions worldwide.

Projected Impact on Food Security

WFP's assessment focused on 45 countries deemed particularly susceptible to El Niño's effects. It forecasts a 22% increase in the number of people facing crisis-level hunger or worse, raising the global total to approximately 274 million individuals.

The hardest hit areas are expected to be Central America and Southern Africa, where disruptions to farming from altered weather patterns could slash food production. Projections indicate food insecurity could rise by 83% in Central America and nearly 75% in Southern Africa. Additionally, Southern Africa, South America, and the Caribbean may each see over 12 million more people struggling to access sufficient food.

Regional Weather Challenges

  • East Africa, Sahel, Central America, and the Caribbean: Forecasts predict below-average rainfall, heightening drought risks.
  • Somalia and neighboring areas: Increased risk of flooding threatens communities.
  • South and Southeast Asia: Expected drought, uneven monsoon rains, and localized flooding pose threats to agriculture and livelihoods.

Concerns Over Monitoring and Funding

Jean-Martin Bauer, Director of WFP's Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Service, emphasized the historical link between El Niño events and large-scale hunger. Despite relatively stable global food markets entering this El Niño phase, ongoing conflicts and weather-related crop failures could drive local food prices up, making access difficult for vulnerable populations.

WFP also highlighted a decline in donor funding, which has reduced its capacity to monitor food security conditions. Household surveys dropped from 1.1 million in 2024 to around 800,000 in 2025, with further decreases this year, potentially delaying identification of communities facing worsening shortages.