The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), once a dominant force in Kenya’s Nyanza, Western, and Coast regions, is experiencing a notable decline in support following the death of its founder, Raila Odinga.

Established during the 2005 constitutional referendum and led by prominent leaders including Raila Odinga, Anyang' Nyong'o, and James Orengo, ODM historically enjoyed overwhelming backing in its traditional strongholds. However, recent developments indicate the party is losing ground amid growing internal rifts and evolving political dynamics.

Signs of Waning Influence

A recent video capturing Lugari MP Nabii Nabwera urging supporters not to abandon an ODM rally in Kakamega County highlights the party’s struggle to maintain its base. The rally, which featured top ODM leaders proposing Cooperatives CS Wycliffe Oparanya as a running mate to President William Ruto for the 2027 elections, underscored the shifting political landscape.

Suba South MP Caroli Omondi publicly declared ODM “politically dead,” criticizing the party for abandoning its founding values and becoming a platform for personal gain rather than genuine public service. Similarly, political analyst James Oloo attributed ODM’s decline to strategies that diverge from those Raila Odinga would have endorsed, noting that the late leader was known for his strong, principled leadership.

Changing Political Landscape

A survey by polling firm TIFA released in July 2026 reflects the competitive nature of Kenya’s political scene ahead of the 2027 general election. Both ODM and the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) have seen reduced support compared to the 2022 polls. Within ODM, the faction led by Edwin Sifuna, known as Linda Mwananchi, has gained significant traction with 74% support, surpassing the Oburu Oginga-led Linda Ground faction, which holds 20%.

Coalition Negotiations and Party Divisions

In response to these challenges, ODM has intensified demands within its coalition with UDA, insisting on a 50-50 power-sharing agreement. Party leaders, including Deputy Party Leader Simba Arati and National Assembly Minority Leader Junet Mohamed, have made it clear that ODM will only back President Ruto’s re-election if it secures the deputy president slot.

Meanwhile, internal disputes continue to affect ODM’s cohesion. Siaya Governor James Orengo suggested the party lost its direction after sidelining former Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna, arguing that ODM’s identity has been compromised since Raila Odinga’s passing.

Outlook

With its traditional bases eroding and internal divisions deepening, ODM faces a critical test as it prepares for the 2027 elections. The party’s ability to reconcile its factions and realign with its foundational values may determine its political future in Kenya’s increasingly competitive landscape.